News And Information From Ukraine

Dispatches from Ukraine. Day 1024.

Zaporizhzhia region. On December 10, Russia launched a ballistic missile strike on a private medical facility in the southeastern regional capital, killing at least 11 people and wounding more than 20 others. This attack marked the deadliest strike in recent months, surpassing another assault just three days earlier that killed 10 civilians.

Kherson region. Russian shelling on December 12 killed one civilian and wounded two others.

On December 12, Ukraine’s Ground Forces Day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the 27th Reactive Artillery Brigade, the first unit in the country to receive HIMARS rocket systems. He also visited the country’s first underground front-line surgical unit, a critical medical facility that has saved more than 1,000 lives.

In 2024 alone, Russian troops murdered more than 100 Ukrainian prisoners of war execution-style in confirmed incidents. For the first two years of the war, 177 such cases have been documented, with Ukraine’s intelligence and law enforcement agencies regularly reporting systematic violations of international humanitarian law and widespread abuse of Ukrainian POWs by Russian forces.

Canada’s Parliament has approved almost $600 million in military aid for Ukraine. The funds are intended to bolster ammunition and other critical supplies as well as training. The package also includes $300 million in financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund and more than $35 million for mine-clearing. Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Canada has provided more than $4.5 billion to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Finance Minister, Serhiy Marchenko, claims that Ukraine has enough weapons and funding to sustain its defense at least until mid-2025, even if the U.S. were to cut off aid. In an interview with El Pais, Marchenko acknowledged that a loss of U.S. support would pose a serious challenge but not an insurmountable crisis. He stressed the importance of cultivating strong ties and trust with a new U.S. administration, which he considers a vital strategic priority for both Ukraine and Europe.

On December 11, the European Union approved its 15th sanctions package against the Kremlin, targeting entities within Russia and third-party nations that facilitate upgraded military and technological capabilities by circumventing restrictions. The package expands the sanctions list, adding more individuals and legal entities, and includes measures against vessels from third countries supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hostile policies. Notably, it introduces sanctions against Chinese companies allegedly involved in Moscow’s military production and includes 48 tankers linked to Russia’s efforts to bypass oil price caps.

In a recent interview with Time magazine, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump expressed opposition to supplying Ukraine with long-range American missiles capable of striking deep within Russian territory, calling it an escalation of the war. While he affirmed his commitment to supporting Ukraine, Trump emphasized using American aid as leverage to push Russia into negotiations for a ceasefire. This stance contrasts with President Joe Biden’s earlier approval of ATACMS missiles for Kyiv. Trump’s approach could hamper Ukraine’s front-line troops and delay Ukraine’s NATO membership for years.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has raised its key interest rate by 0.5 percentage points to 13.5%. Despite the NBU projections, inflation has exceeded all forecasts, reflecting an ongoing energy deficit. Forecasts of the shortfall in electricity supply remain highly unreliable, largely due to the unpredictable nature of Russian missile strikes on energy infrastructure and varying success in intercepting the missiles.

The recent NBU decision aims to counteract inflationary pressures, which have significantly accelerated in recent months, with inflation reaching 11.2% in November, up from 2.2% in June. The central financial institution, which ignored the accelerating inflation for almost six months, is tightening monetary policy in an attempt to bring inflation down towards a target rate of 5%. While the NBU has signaled that it might continue raising rates if inflationary pressures persist, it also cited a $50 billion agreement involving frozen Russian assets, which will bolster the nation’s foreign reserves.

French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met December 12 to discuss the possibility of western troops serving as peacekeepers in Ukraine. Although Ukrainian President Zelenskyy expressed a willingness to consider the idea, Tusk later announced that Poland does not now support any such proposal. The presence of such peacekeepers probably would require a cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. Reports of the talks did not mention any attempts to sound out Russia’s views on western peacekeepers in Ukraine.

Russia’s economy faces mounting strain as war spending surges, with the 2025 defense budget set to rise 25% to more than $130 billion. Despite record military expenditures amounting to 8% of GDP, or a quarter of the federal budget, economic growth has stalled under Western sanctions, further hobbled by labor shortages and inflation of nearly 10%. The arms industry is struggling to sustain production due to aging Soviet-era stockpiles and sanctions on critical imports while soaring recruitment costs reflect difficulties in replacing front-line losses. As oil revenues decline, the government hopes that new taxes and spending cuts will stabilize finances but high interest rates and sanctions could tip the fragile economy into stagflation or recession, amplifying vulnerability to external shocks.

In a historic trade deal with India’s private refinery Reliance, Russia’s state-owned oil enterprise Rosneft is set to deliver nearly 500,000 barrels of oil per day in the largest energy contract between the two nations. The decade-long agreement, worth $13 billion annually, strengthens energy ties between these two nations amid Western sanctions on Moscow. India, now the largest buyer of Russian oil since the EU reduced imports in 2022, will receive up to three heavy fuel oil shipments monthly, with prices and volumes adjusted annually.

By Danylo Nosov, Alan Sacks.