“They chose disorder,” said French President Emmanuel Macron, referring to the right- and left-wing politicians who last week jointly voted in favour of a no-confidence vote which toppled the government.
Speaking to the nation in a televised address on Thursday, Macron highlighted that his opponents had chosen “an anti-Republican front” by removing Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government over a social security budget dispute on Wednesday.
The right- and left-wing parties have said their united decision to table a no-confidence vote was intended to improve the welfare of French citizens.
But the vote has thrown France into political chaos for the second time this year and left the country without a budget for 2025.
The political gridlock could affect far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) party which has been eager to govern France for years, according to experts.
Here’s what you need to know:
Will the French political crisis help Marine Le Pen’s far-right party?
France’s far-right RN party, known for its anti-immigrant and racist policies, was initially projected to win July’s snap elections after polling the most votes in the first round.
But the New Popular Front (NFP), an alliance of left-wing parties, seized most seats, putting it ahead of the hard right and Macron’s centrist coalition.
Back then, Le Pen said: “The tide is rising. It did not rise high enough this time, but it continues to rise and, consequently, our victory has only been delayed.”
The RN has since been eager to draw more public support – a strategy some say was put into practice while voting against Barnier’s government.
France’s public deficit is equivalent to about 6.1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) and Barnier was keen to bring it in line with European Union rules, which require countries to have a budget deficit ratio of no more than 3 percent.
What’s the RN calling for?
The RN wanted Barnier’s budget to include a rise in state pensions and a provision to scrap medical reimbursement cuts, among other budget concession demands.
Barnier said he did not negotiate but listened to the RN’s demands.
However, when he attempted to pass the budget bill without a vote in parliament, the RN party agreed to support the left-wing NFP’s no-confidence vote.
“The choice we made was to protect the French,” Le Pen told the French broadcaster TF1.
“By censoring this budget, we defended businesses against the increase in the cost of labour, against a tax on ‘Made in France’, against the reduction in apprenticeship aid. We protected the country from a budget that targeted businesses,” Jordan Bardella, the RN president often described as Le Pen’s protege, told the national public broadcaster France 2.
“Barnier’s government was at the service of the far right. And the minute he did not deliver to their political agenda, they got rid of him,” Amine Snoussi, a political adviser at the French parliament for La France Insoumise, the left-wing party founded by Jean-Luc Melenchon, told Al Jazeera.
“[They hope] Macron will now adopt all of their policies, anti-immigration laws and Islamophobic agenda or they will get rid of every government,” he said.
Adam Hsakou, programme coordinator at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Paris, said the public, especially those who reject the far right, are now searching for stability.
“If these mainstream forces achieve to act on key issues to the public – such as health, security, and economy – this could be a blow to Marine Le Pen’s disruptive strategy, as she will appear cornered and marginalised, with limited influence on important bills,” he told Al Jazeera.
What does all this mean for Le Pen?
Le Pen, 56, has had her eyes on the Elysee Palace, the official residence of the president, for years.
In the previous two presidential elections, she made it to the second round but ultimately lost to Macron.
The RN party leader is the youngest daughter of far-right stalwart Jean-Marie Le Pen.
She wants to win the 2027 presidential vote and has been trying to revamp her image by distancing herself from her father’s gaffes, racism and anti-Semitic outbursts, portraying herself as a leader for the masses.
But her anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim policies continue.
Now, she has to appease her populist fanbase and moderate electorate.
“In the short term, Le Pen has cemented the impression that she’s now well established in the centre of France’s political game,” Jacob Ross, an expert on French politics and Franco-German relations at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera.
Ross noted how she exchanges phone calls and texts with the prime minister and meets important figures of centrist parties for lunch or dinner.
“This, however, comes at a certain cost: her more populist electorate will increasingly see her and her party as sellouts to the Paris establishment. Which is why the toppling of Barnier might help her in this regard,” he said.
“Yet, it might drive away more moderate voters who had traditionally voted for the centre-right Republicans. They were attracted to her strategy of ‘de-diabolisation’ and now these voters will think twice before voting for Le Pen if they fear that it could tank the economy and impact their living standards,” Ross added.
What’s Le Pen’s play now?
Le Pen is also currently on trial alongside other members of her party on charges of embezzling EU funds – a claim she denies. The outcome of the case is expected next year.
“Le Pen knows her lawsuit could take her away from the next presidential elections. That’s why the political instability right now is doing her business,” Soussi said.
“She wants a presidential election next year, not in 2027. The only two political figures that are ready to compete tomorrow if there is a snap election, are Jean-Luc Melenchon and Le Pen. The other political movements do not have clear candidates and are not seen as major opponents to Macron, as they are trying to convince him to work with them in a majority,” he added.
But Ross noted that Le Pen has not been pressing Macron to resign and pave the road for an early presidential election.
“She is more patient than the left-wing populists, knowing that discontent with Macron in the public will only grow and will probably strengthen her position,” he said.
On Thursday, Macron said he would not resign.
Jonathan Machler, an activist and member of the French Communist Party, said Le Pen is far from a woman of the people.
“She has an interest in preserving her position as a spectator and watching others fail, even if it’s to the detriment of the French people,” he said.
“As [Macron] is refusing to leave, he has two options: he can either continue to put himself ‘under surveillance’ of the RN by governing to the … extreme right, or he can make another choice by recognising the result of July’s snap elections and let the NFP govern,” he said.
2024-12-10 08:48:18
