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Ukraine is battling against a “prevailing” Russia in the eastern Donetsk region, Kyiv’s military chief has admitted, as Vladimir Putin’s forces look to secure as much territory as possible before US president-elect Donald Trumpre-enters the White House.
Ukrainian military chief Oleksandr Syrskyi described the fighting as “extremely tough” as he was pictured visiting the Pokrovsk area in Donetsk on Wednesday, where Russian forces have advanced to within just a few miles of the city’s outskirts.
The area is a linchpin of the wider region’s defence and war trackers have expressed concern that should it fall, it could pave the way for Russia to seize swathes of more territory.
“Battles continue in the Pokrovsk direction with the enemy prevailing, first of all, in manpower,” General Syrskyi wrote on the Telegram messenger app.
“Battles are extremely tough. The Russian occupiers are throwing forward all available resources, trying to break through.”
He added that they were exploring “non-standard decisions” to more effectively destroy the attacking forces as he lauded the “extraordinary resilience” of the Ukrainian troops defending the area.
It is just over a month until Mr Trump is inaugurated on 20 January, having pledged to end the war in Ukraine in just 24 hours, even if that means forcing Kyiv to cede territory to Russia to achieve his goal.
The situation along the entire Donetsk front is now looking increasingly precarious for Ukraine, with several other key towns appearing about to fall into Russian hands.
Below, The Independent looks at the flashpoints of the frontline, and why some believe these losses will continue unless Ukraine’s military undergoes major changes.
Pokrovsk
For months, the main objective of Russia’s push in Donetsk has appeared to be Pokrovsk.
Since the fall of the key city of Avdiivka to the southeast in February, Russia has taken almost 400 square miles of the region, advancing nearly 30 miles.
Ukraine rushed to fortify defences in front of the city, ultimately slowing the direct assault, but the Russians responded by widening its attack to exploit weaknesses around the city.
Now, Russian troops have pushed through the towns of Shevchenko and Novyi Trud roughly three miles to the southwest, as well as Mykolaivka on the other side of the city.
Sitting on two key supply lines that feed Ukraine’s forces throughout Donetsk, the city, once home to 60,000 people, has been pummeled by Russian glide bombs. Only a sixth of the population remains, with tens of thousands having fled.
Its capture would compromise Ukraine’s defensive abilities and supply routes, and would bring Russia closer to its stated goal of seizing the entire Donetsk region.
In its latest update, the Ukrainian general staff said Russia had launched 40 assaults towards Pokrovsk and had been “actively using aviation”.
The majority of attacks were concentrated to the southwest of Pokrovsk, including against Shevchenko and Novyi Trud.
Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian outfit tracking the war and which is known to have close ties to the Ukrainian military, says they have observed an increased Russian effort to use first-person view (FPV) drones to target supply routes leading to Pokrovsk.
“This is a serious threat to the resupply process of Povrosk, potentially threatening the sustainability of Ukrainian defences in the area,” they wrote.
They added that there had been an “alarming increase” in Russian drone attacks against civilians in the area.
As the Russian attack continues to slowly creep towards Pokrovsk, Ukrainian military figures have become more vocal about the reasons why.
Poor coordination at both the tactical and strategic level, a shortage of personnel within units and insufficient troop rotations (in some cases, none at all) are proving costly, according to Frontelligence Insight. These problems have persisted throughout this year, they added.
And while Russian forces are suffering significant casualties in their mass assault towards and around Pokrovsk – around 400 a day in Pokrovsk alone, according to Gen Syrskyi – their continuous assaults have “proven effective in the short to medium term”.
Renowned Ukrainian military officer Serhii Filimonov, commander of the “Da Vinci Wolves” battalion of the 59th Motorised Brigade, described Pokrovsk’s defence as a “disaster”.
“The main reason for the disaster in the Pokrovsky direction is the higher command, which sets unrealistic tasks for the units,” he wrote.
“Generals who do not understand the capabilities of their units and are not oriented in the situation on the front line.”
His comments came amid unconfirmed reports that Gen Syrskyi had personally taken charge of some brigades around Pokrovsk, a move that, if true, would be highly unusual.
Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka
On the bottom left flank of Russia’s swollen assault towards Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces are also facing the prospect of having to withdraw from Kurakhove, another key town but this time on the road to the neighbouring Zaporizhzhia region.
The General Staff said there had been 49 attacks in the area in the last 24 hours.
Russian forces had struggled to take the city from the east owing to well-prepared defences. But after shifting tactics to attack from the north, they have had more success.
After gaining control of the lake that runs along Kurakhove’s northern outskirts, Moscow’s troops have since gained control over many of the supply routes into the town, according to Frontelligence Insight, and have pushed into the town of Stari Terny at the top of the waterway.
The Ukrainian focus has now shifted from trying to hold the town, as well a sliver of the area behind, to organising a successful withdrawal to the town of Dachne, adjacent to Stari Terny but roughly four miles back from Kurakhove, according to the Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS), a Ukrainian security think tank.
Further southwest, Russian forces continued to push towards Velyka Novosilka, near the regional border with Zaporizhzhia.
The settlement is a critical stronghold for Ukraine, writes Frontelligence Insight, that has served as a key assembly area for both offensive and defensive operations. It is also a key route linking towns further east to the rest of unoccupied Ukraine.
Since the Russians captured Vuhledar at the start of October, they have pushed nearly 20 miles towards the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka. Its loss could be severe.
“Russian forces would gain multiple options for further advances,” writes Frontelligence Insight.
2024-12-13 14:09:23
