Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki breaks down how New Jersey could provide an early test for Donald Trump’s coalition. Plus, senior national political reporter Sahil Kapur finds that senators from both parties are skeptical of Trump’s recent call for a deal on Dreamers.
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A blue state could provide an early test for the Trump coalition
By Steve Kornacki
One of the biggest gains Donald Trump notched this year came in what has been one of the bluest states in the country: New Jersey. The incoming president lost the Garden State to Kamala Harris by 6 points, a double-digit improvement from his 16-point margin of defeat against Joe Biden in 2020.
Key to Trump’s expanded support were sizable gains with Hispanic voters, part of a national trend that was even more pronounced in New Jersey, where just over 1 in 5 residents are Hispanic. He also made notable strides with Asian American voters and with Muslim and Arab American voters in a few pockets of the state, while boosting his already strong standing in Orthodox Jewish areas — again, all consistent patterns seen throughout the country.
A major question that emerges from the 2024 election is whether Republicans can maintain this new demographic coalition — and build on it — without Trump himself being on the ballot. This positions New Jersey’s upcoming 2025 gubernatorial contest as a potential early test.
The magnitude of some of the shifts within New Jersey this year is staggering. In all six of the major cities or towns where Hispanics account for more than 70% of the population, the margin moved at least 20 points in Trump’s direction compared to 2020. And it’s even more dramatic compared to 2016.
Increased Hispanic support for Trump has also made the state’s largest city, Newark, somewhat less of a vote bank for Democrats. Nearly half of the city’s 305,000 residents are Black, but the Hispanic population has been growing and now accounts for nearly 40% of Newark’s population. Trump was still crushed in the city this year, losing it to Kamala Harris by 58 points, but that’s actually a significant improvement from the 85-point loss he suffered when he first ran in 2016.
A similar story is unfolding in the town of Palisades Park in North Jersey, home to one of the highest concentrations of Korean Americans in the country. Trump lost Palisades Park, which is 63% Asian American, by just 5 points in November, compared to 22 points in 2020 and 32 points in 2016.
And then there’s Lakewood, home to one of the largest Orthodox Jewish communities outside Israel. The township’s population has more than doubled, from 60,000 in 2000 to nearly 140,000 in last year’s census estimate, with no slowdown in sight. It’s become a major source of GOP support statewide, one that Trump has taken to new heights. When he first ran in 2016, Trump carried Lakewood by 50 points. This November, he drove that number up to 75 points.
In New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race, Democrats will obviously be hoping that the demographic inroads Trump made are Trump-specific. And they do have at least some reason for optimism: In the state’s race for an open U.S. Senate this year, Democrat Andy Kim overperformed Harris in all of these places. In Passaic, for example, he defeated his Republican opponent by 6 points — a net 13-point improvement over Harris.
But Republicans can also take heart that, even as Kim ran ahead of Harris, his support level in these communities still tended to be significantly lower than how Democrats fared pre-Trump.
It will make all of these places worth keeping a close eye on as the governor’s race unfolds.
Senators are skeptical of Trump’s call for a bipartisan deal on Dreamers
By Sahil Kapur
When President-elect Donald Trump told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that he’s interested in cutting a deal with Democrats to protect Dreamers brought to the U.S. at a young age, some senators felt a tinge of déjà vu.
“We have to do something about the Dreamers because these are people that have been brought here at a very young age. And many of these are middle-aged people now. They don’t even speak the language of their country,” Trump told moderator Kristen Welker. “I will work with the Democrats on a plan.”
When asked about Trump’s remarks, leading Senate Republicans didn’t close the door to a deal — but they did sound a note of skepticism about the prospects.
“We’ll see. The sweet spot on immigration reform has eluded us a number of times. But obviously if there is a bipartisan willingness to take on that issue, then I’m certainly open to what we can do,” said incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. “It’d be better long term if we could come up with some legislative solutions, but in the last few administrations, everything’s been done by executive action. So it’s going to take something to break that logjam.”
Trump used similar rhetoric during his first term, but his actions told a different story. As president in 2017, he sought to end the DACA program that protected undocumented immigrants who arrived in the U.S. as children from deportation. And in 2018, when Sens. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., and Angus King, I-Maine, cut a bipartisan deal to give Dreamers legal status while giving Trump money for his border wall, Trump’s White House successfully fought to kill the deal because it didn’t also curtail family-based immigration.
Senate Judiciary Chair Dick Durbin, D-Ill., who sponsored the original Dream Act in 2001, said he was “listening closely” to Trump’s comments on the matter Sunday and welcomed talks.
“My ears perked up. After 23 years, I’m ready,” he said. “Anytime, anywhere — let’s sit down.”
“But there’s reason to be skeptical, if not cynical,” Durbin added.
More MTP interview reaction: Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., who chaired the now-defunct House Jan. 6 committee, pushed back against Trump’s suggestion during his “Meet the Press” interview that the panel’s former members should be imprisoned. Read more →
🗞️ Today’s top stories
- ➡️ McConnell update: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, 82, is recovering from minor injuries after falling following Senate Republicans’ weekly lunch on Tuesday, his office said. Read more →
- ⚾ At the plate: Trump is going to bat for Tulsi Gabbard, his pick to be the country’s top intelligence official, who is facing scrutiny as she meets with senators this week. Read more →
- 🏃 Hit the ground running: While Trump is looking to fill many key administration posts with outsiders, his selection for acting head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Caleb Vitello, has decades of experience with the agency. Read more →
- 🩺 House call: Democratic senators want answers from Mehmet Oz on his “previous advocacy for Medicare privatization” as he seeks to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Read more →
- 📝 Final report: The bipartisan House task force investigating the assassination attempts against Trump is out with its final report, including dozens of recommendations. Read more →
- 📔 That’s classified: In his first term, Trump’s Justice Department secretly obtained phone and text message logs of 43 congressional staffers and two members of Congress during an investigation into leaks. Read more →
- 🚫 Won’t back down: New York Attorney General Letitia James has rejected Trump’s request to walk away from her office’s $486 million civil fraud judgment against him. Read more →
- ⚡ Youth movement: A growing band of younger, more energetic House Democrats is challenging seasoned veterans for powerful congressional posts, upending the party’s long-standing practice of deference to seniority. Read more →
- 🇨🇦 Hey neighbor: Trump posted a social media message mocking Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the “governor” of the “Great State of Canada.” Read more →
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]
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2024-12-10 22:15:00
